From AI to Sustainability: 2024 Tech Industry Outlook
Tech Insights, Analysis, and Predictions That Will Shape 2024 and Beyond
The future is not about technology trends. It’s about trends in humanity.
The pace of technological advancement and global change continues to accelerate rapidly. As we enter 2024, it is critical for businesses, policymakers, and society at large to understand the key trends shaping major industries over the next few years. This analysis provides a comprehensive overview of predicted developments across sectors like AI, cloud computing, blockchain, electric vehicles, and more.
By leveraging research from leading organizations like Gartner, PwC, and McKinsey, this post serves as an invaluable guide to strategic planning amidst uncertainty. It explores crossover themes like generative AI, cloud wars, geopolitical tensions, sustainability priorities, and the emergence of new ecosystems. The aim is to synthesize insights that cut across traditional industry boundaries.
Leaders must make difficult decisions while balancing short-term pragmatism with long-term visions. However, forecasting future landscapes enables more informed capital allocation, talent development, and partnerships. Although surprises are inevitable, analysis grounded in rigorous research allows us to anticipate change, respond with agility, and transform uncertainty into opportunity.
The coming years will stretch organizational resilience amid technological, economic, and social shifts. This blog post is designed to help leaders across industries chart an insightful path forward.
Artificial Intelligence
Generative AI
Generative AI is predicted to grow rapidly, with the market expected to reach $33 billion by 2027, representing an 80% CAGR. Generative AI is the fastest-growing AI technology, accounting for 10.2% of the overall AI market in 2027. The earliest-adopting verticals include IT, consumer, retail banking, manufacturing, retail, and healthcare.
In 2024, AI will intensify information wars
Trade tensions between the US and China are escalating, with both countries using increasingly large AI models to gain a competitive edge. In 2024, several frontier large language models (LLMs) will launch, such as OpenAI's GPT5, Meta's Llama 3, Anthropic's Claude 3, and Inflection AI's Pi 2.
AI-led business models will transform Operations
By 2024, large organizations will need to become AI companies, leading to disruptions in existing processes. AI platforms for human-AI decision-making will diversify their portfolios, with hyperscale cloud providers like Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon owning platforms for cloud-based and edge-based model deployment and inference training. A rivalry among prominent AI capabilities will replace regional coverage and availability as the focal points for cloud service providers. Businesses will consider using open-source models and investing in controlled private cloud infrastructure. Generative AI will generate disruptive new business models, and organizations must either adopt it or undergo a business pivot to achieve operational efficiencies. Regulation will drive new trends, such as constitutional AI, which requires transparent and rule-abiding AI, particularly in high-risk sectors like healthcare, finance, and government.
Regulations catalyze new trends, such as constitutional AI
Generative AI faces challenges in gaining public trust, especially in high-risk sectors like healthcare, finance, and government. Transparent and rule-abiding AI is crucial, especially in constitutional AI, which trains systems with pre-determined rules. Aligning constitutional AI and LLM is essential to addressing regulatory challenges and making sure AI serves the public's best interests.
AI Chips
AI chips, also known as AI accelerators, are semiconductors designed to perform AI tasks more efficiently and come in various forms, such as GPUs, FPGAs, ASICs, and native AI accelerators.
Semiconductor industry growth returns
The semiconductors industry experienced a 9.4% decrease in billings between 2022 and 2023 due to supply chain disruptions, component shortages, the global economic downturn, and geopolitical turmoil. Foundries have experienced order cancellations and reduced capex expenditure. However, demand for AI chips remains high, as seen in Nvidia's over 100% YoY revenue growth in the last two quarters. It is anticipated that the semiconductor industry will experience an upswing in 2024, due to the introduction of new products and increased requirements from device suppliers and AI servers. AI chip revenue is expected to reach $130 billion by 2030.
Producing chips in-house, and relying less on Nvidia
AMD will compete with Biren Technology, Cambricon, Graphcore, Groq, and Horizon Robotics in 2024, but Nvidia will remain the top AI processor provider. Alphabet, Alibaba, Amazon, and Microsoft are creating their own AI processors to reduce their Nvidia dependence. Complex AI models and applications will require alternatives to Nvidia's high-power GPUs like the H100 GPU.
The US will experience growth in supply chain reshoring
The US will continue to reshoring its semiconductor supply chain due to geopolitical tensions and a technological race with China. The Chips Act of 2022 will stimulate investment, with TSMC developing fabs in Texas and Arizona in 2024. However, skilled labor shortages in the US semiconductor market pose challenges.
AI Regulation
AI governance is expected to evolve slowly, with initial attempts to regulate AI being patchy and struggling to keep up with advancements, resulting in an uncertain and fragmented global regulatory landscape.
China and the EU will have the most advanced AI legislation by 2025
The EU's AI Act, aimed at consumer protection and accountability, will be enforceable from 2025. However, due to the rapid advancement of AI and its complexity, disagreements at EU member states may result in delays. China's AI regulations align with Communist Party ideology and financial incentives for AI development, serving as a model for the Asia Pacific region. US President Biden's 2023 Executive Order on AI aims to regulate AI models with limits on size, but differing views and agendas may hinder a uniform approach in 2024. The UK has no statutory AI regulation commitments.
Despite AI model transparency increase, regulators will not be satisfied
AI's rapid advancement poses challenges in establishing a regulatory framework, with concerns of antitrust and regulatory capture increasing in 2024. Companies must increase AI model transparency to comply with fragmented global regulations or face costly scrutiny.
Microsoft, OpenAI, and Google established the Frontier Model Forum to advance transparent, secure, and safe AI models.
The EU's AI Act and President Biden's executive order are steps forward for transparency, watermarking, and content labeling. However, technological challenges in detecting content ownership and the fragility of AI watermarks must be addressed.
Bad actors will use AI to disrupt national elections in 2024
Hostile states with easy access to AI-generated deepfakes and disinformation are trying to undermine democracy, particularly in the 2024 US presidential elections. Combining social analytics for voter profiling with automatically generated content could exacerbate issues. In 2024, web providers will introduce content warnings for AI-generated content, as 43% of individuals cannot differentiate between fake and genuine content. This will make voters distrust even legitimate material.
Cybersecurity
GenAI, a threat to social engineering scams
Employees are becoming more susceptible to spear-phishing attacks, with AI tools like OpenAI's ChatGPT enhancing the sophistication and personalization of such attacks. Organizations must raise awareness to prevent similar attacks.
Increase number of applications for AI in cybersecurity
AI-based security is expected to evolve with new attack techniques and growing use cases. AI uses supervised machine learning, unsupervised self-learning models, and typical network activity detection to tackle cyber threats. However, these models can only identify signs of previous attacks and can only tackle new ones. As technology advances, more diversity will be achieved in cyber software models, ensuring robust and efficient security measures.
Extreme pressure on CISOs due to cyber skills shortages
In 2024, Chief information security officers (CISOs) worldwide will face increased stress due to cyber skills shortages, evolving threats, and the need for a resilient culture. They will also face increased pressure from ransomware and zero-trust architecture requirements, and the need for board language proficiency.
Tighter regulation will enforce EU cyber compliance
The EU cybersecurity directive, NIS2, enforces stricter risk management, reporting obligations, and information-sharing rules. Member states must pass these measures into national law by October 2024. The Digital Operational Resilience Act (DORA) aims to harmonize digital operational resilience requirements for all EU financial entities. Organizations must understand the regulatory landscape to stay compliant.
AgTech
The engine behind the fourth agricultural revolution is AI
The UN predicts a global population of 9.7 billion by 2050, with urbanization increasing from 55% in 2018 to 68% in 2050. Food security concerns are also increasing. With climate volatility, supply chain disruptions, population growth, and rising farming input costs, the need to boost agricultural yield and mitigate environmental damage is greater than ever. AI can significantly improve farming efficiency and help tackle climate change and environmental degradation challenges. Its decision-making capabilities can analyze vast amounts of data, helping farmers make the right choices quickly. As a result, agricultural companies are integrating AI into their products, such as John Deere's See&Spray Ultimate weed-spraying system, which uses machine learning and computer vision to distinguish weeds and cultured plants.
AI will provide new methods of plant breeding
Bayer has developed AI-based plant breeding methods, focusing on genomic sequencing rather than phenotypes. This mimics traditional breeding techniques, utilizing genetic mapping, machine learning, and generative AI. AI can analyze vast genetic data and millions of combinations to recommend optimal seed varieties tailored to farmer needs. This technology can help produce plant varieties that can withstand climates, pests, soil health, and irrigation deficits, while also reducing waste.
The digital revolution in agriculture cannot happen without improved connectivity
The agricultural sector is undergoing a digital transformation due to the reliability, lower latency, and high speed of 5G technology. It enables real-time data collection and transfer from in-field sensors, enabling smart farming and the use of robotics, computer vision, and IoT. GlobalData predicts a global increase in 5G mobile subscriptions from 1.7 billion in 2022 to 6.9 billion by 2028.
Blockchain
Beyond the hype with real-world applications
Blockchain adoption has decreased due to businesses evaluating its suitability, leading to high-profile initiatives like the B3i insurance consortium and the Australian Stock Exchange's settlement system overhaul. As businesses gain a deeper understanding of blockchain, successful implementations are expected as the hype surrounding the technology subsides.
Financial firms will explore further tokenized assets
Asset tokenization, where ownership rights are represented as digital tokens on a blockchain, is a significant use case for blockchain technology. It aims to increase liquidity and efficiency in illiquid assets like real estate and collectibles, impacting wealth distribution and the economy. JPMorgan's platform has processed over $300 billion in short-term loans since December 2020, while HSBC, Goldman Sachs, and BNY Mellon launched major tokenization initiatives in 2023.
In-house blockchain development
Financial institutions and other companies are shifting towards in-house development of blockchain capabilities, aiming to gain control and customization. This shift signifies a maturing blockchain ecosystem and a push towards practical and efficient blockchain applications, as Big Tech transitions from BaaS to a wider Web3 infrastructure.
China will play an important role in blockchain adoption
China, despite its cryptocurrency ban, remains a major blockchain player due to strong government support and the state-backed Blockchain-based Service Network (BSN). However, concerns about BSN's international affiliation may arise. China's new national blockchain research center will train 500,000 professionals to address the talent shortage. Over a hundred companies have adopted blockchain standards set by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, addressing interoperability, security, and quality development.
Cloud Computing
Cloud computing will reach $1.4 trillion by 2027
The global cloud computing market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 17% between 2022 and 2027, reaching $1.4 trillion by 2027. Software as a service (SaaS) will dominate, accounting for 63% of cloud services revenue in 2023. Platform as a service (PaaS) will be the fastest-growing cloud service, with a CAGR of 21% between 2022 and 2027. Antitrust regulators will focus on Microsoft and Amazon's dominance over infrastructure as a service (IaaS) in 2024.
AI’s transformative effect on cloud computing
The rise of AI will increase the demand for compute and storage resources for training and running AI models. It will also transform cloud resource management by integrating AI into observability platforms, analyzing machine-generated logs to preempt issues, identify root causes, and automate resolutions. This will improve security, performance, and cost optimization. Generative AI will enable cloud engineers to solve tasks using natural language, boosting productivity.
FinOps will become standard procedure
Cloud computing, which promised lower costs, has faced challenges such as opaque pricing, poor observability, and complicated setups. FinOps (financial operations) optimizes cloud spending through data-driven decisions, working with engineering, finance, and business. Due to financial constraints and macroeconomic hardships, FinOps is expected to gain popularity.
Edge computing market will be worth $32 billion by 2027
Edge computing sales will reach $32 billion in 2027, up 23% between 2022 and 2027. Edge computing deploys and uses computer processing, data storage, analytics, near data collection, digital content, and application consumption.
Low-latency applications like robots and driverless cars will benefit from edge computing. Cloud service providers will collaborate with telecoms to use 5G network resources for edge computing.
Critical Minerals
Net-zero targets will weigh on vital mineral markets
Over 70 countries have set net-zero targets and pledged to reduce emissions, putting pressure on natural resource supplies, particularly for energy transition technologies like electric vehicles and solar panels, which are often in short supply, monopolized, or at risk of supply chain disruption.
China will continue to dominate the critical mineral supply chain
China's control over the mineral supply chain, including lithium, graphite, Rare earth elements (REE), and cobalt, has raised concerns among nations. In 2024, Chinese export policies will determine availability and market price. The US Inflation Reduction Act (2022) aims to establish a US-controlled supply chain of essential minerals, but its full impact will not be realized until 2024.
Alternatives will ease pressure on lithium supplies
Lithium demand is expected to surpass output by 2026, reaching 300 kt in 2028. To alleviate this demand, alternatives like sodium-ion batteries are being introduced. FinDreams, a subsidiary of BYD, plans to manufacture Na-ion batteries alongside lithium-ion batteries, leveraging their abundantness, cost-effectiveness, and extraction ease. Huaihai Holding Group plans to increase Na-ion battery capacity to 30 GWh, with no specific schedule.
Recycling: an important part of supply chain diversification
Recycling essential minerals reduces market volatility, lowers commodity costs, and minimizes environmental impact. The EU's battery recycling legislation sets lithium recovery objectives for used batteries, benefiting European firms like Northvolt. China is expected to lead in recycling by 2024, with Brunp and GEM leading the way.
Cryptocurrencies
Third crypto winter will end
Global cryptocurrency markets are expected to return to a bull cycle for the first time since November 2021, thanks to an improving macroeconomic climate, the fourth bitcoin halving, and the approval of the first US spot-based ETF. Despite challenges like the FTX exchange collapse, industry sentiment is optimistic for 2024, with expected global interest rate cuts driving excess liquidity and renewed interest in high-risk assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies. The fourth bitcoin halving in April 2024 will further boost interest and investment in the crypto ecosystem.
The SEC will approve the first spot crypto ETFs
A US federal court ruled in August 2023 that the SEC prevented Grayscale from converting its Bitcoin Trust into an ETF, prompting BlackRock and 11 other asset managers to apply for spot bitcoin ETFs.
The first group of spot bitcoin ETFs is expected to gain SEC approval in Q1 2024, followed by spot Ethereum ETF approval later in the year.
The US will strive to put together a straightforward set of regulations
The US government is aiming to provide regulatory clarity for cryptocurrency companies and investors, focusing on traditional securities laws and tailored frameworks like the EU's Market in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation. The US will also aim to curb the growth of large US crypto companies like Coinbase and Gemini, which are expanding their offshore operations and investments. Several bills have been presented to the Senate to clarify cryptocurrencies' regulatory jurisdiction.
Edtech
GenAI will change teaching and learning
In 2023, ChatGPT usage among university students increased significantly, with 89% in the US using it for essay writing and online exams. Generative AI can support learning development, enhance evaluative assessment, and enable experimentation with assignment execution. UNESCO has mandated AI's potential to transform teaching and learning but emphasizes inclusion and equity principles. As generative AI features for online platforms expand, concerns over academic integrity will persist until better defined.
VR/AR-based education will begin but will face challenges
Immersive learning is gaining popularity, with schools exploring the use of virtual reality and augmented reality technologies to enhance student engagement. A 2022 survey found that 78% of K-12 instructors believe AR improves student involvement, attention, and achievement. Chinese officials have proposed implementing virtual reality in elementary and secondary schools. Virtual reality headsets offer immersive experiences, but data privacy and transparency issues remain. Providing quality VR and AR content is also a challenge.
Edtech M&A rebound in 2024, driven by AI
The edtech sector is expected to be worth $535 billion by 2030, with a compound yearly growth rate of 9.8% from 2022 to 2030. In 2024, edtech companies are expected to increase their product offerings, particularly in areas like AI.
Recent acquisitions include the University of Idaho's acquisition of the University of Phoenix, PowerSchool's acquisition of SchoolMessenger, Kahoot's $1.7 billion cash offer from Goldman Sachs, and Instructure's purchase of Parchment.
Electric Vehicles
Global EV sales will surpass 50 million units by 2028
With a 16.1% CAGR in the global electrified vehicles market between 2023 and 2028, reaching 53.9 million units due to demand and supply factors. By the end of this period, battery electric vehicles will surpass hybrids as the leading electrified driving option.
China will remain the dominant force in the global EV market in 2024
China leads the global plug-in vehicle market in sales and production, accounting for 55% of global EV sales in H1 2023. BYD, the leading producer, is already the world leader in combined BEV and PHEV sales. In the first nine months of 2023, over one million BEVs were sold, surpassing Tesla's 1.3 million. China is also boosting EV sales overseas, particularly in Europe, and extending the purchase tax exemption for EVs to 2027 to maintain its position.
Chinese BEV exports to Europe will continue despite an EU investigation
China's state subsidies may have kept Chinese-made BEVs in Europe cheap, leading to punitive import duties if proven guilty. European OEMs heavily invest in Chinese manufacturing, and avoiding a trade war benefits both parties. German OEMs may be concerned about retaliatory tariffs, while European manufacturers may struggle to produce cheap BEVs. Chinese imports to the EU may lose incentives in some countries due to unfair state-sponsored character.
Competition will increase with more BEV models coming to market
The global BEV market is becoming more competitive, with the number of models expected to rise from 552 to 635 in 2024. China faces intense competition from global brands and domestic firms, leading to price reductions.
Fintech
The fintech industry faces challenges due to economic conditions, regulatory complexities, and geopolitical factors. In 2024, investors will prioritize monetizing services and transparent business models to drive profitability, reducing venture capital funding for fintech startups. Market uncertainty and economic uncertainty will decrease fintech funding. Fintechs will reduce headcount, pursue M&A to access new markets and expertise, and pivot from D2C to B2B operations to operate as technology vendors.
AI-based credit checks will transform lending
In 2024, digital lenders will use AI algorithms to analyze behavioral data and assess borrowers' creditworthiness, reducing the risk of defaults and fraud. This will help them make informed decisions about loan pricing and mitigate risks. As more digital lenders integrate AI into their systems, they will make digital onboarding easier and secure, while also enhancing compliance with anti-money laundering and Know Your Customer regulations. However, concerns about potential bias and discrimination may arise from the use of AI for screening purposes in digital lending platforms.
Embedded finance will drive widespread use of "super-apps."
Super-apps, popular in Asia, offer a wide range of services within a single mobile application. Despite challenges like data privacy and regulation, US technology companies and banks are supporting their development as a lucrative revenue source. Financial service providers will embed their propositions into super-apps to facilitate partnerships and increase consumer engagement, potentially disrupting traditional banking in 2024.
Frictionless Commerce
Shoppers can bypass the checkout line thanks to frictionless commerce
Frictionless commerce is a method of shopping where customers enter stores using various methods like barcodes, payment cards, or biometrics, and select items without checking out, using computer vision, sensors, and machine learning.
Cheap silicon sensors will make frictionless commerce affordable
The frictionless commerce market has experienced stagnant growth since 2022 due to inflation and lack of investors. However, replacing mechanical sensors with silicon sensors could revive the trend. These smart sensors, which detect light, motion, proximity, pressure, temperature, and radiation, are on the rise due to their low cost.
Radio-frequency identification (RFID) will support the growth of frictionless commerce
RFID is a wireless communication technology that uses radio waves to read information without direct sight. It can be integrated into product labels, providing valuable product information. RFID can enhance frictionless commerce experiences by allowing scanners to read basket contents within seconds. PwC predicts that one in two shoppers will switch to frictionless retail, making RFID a successful solution for brands in this market.
Frictionless commerce: a new space for data collection
Stores that offer frictionless commerce, like Amazon, are using AI technology to analyze sensor data. This technology can detect human behavior and provide insights into customer preferences, enhancing the precision of data collection. This presents a chance for consumer algorithm enhancement, allowing brands to track customer preferences both online and in-store. However, easing consumer privacy concerns could lead to better data capture.
Future Connectivity
5.5G will close the distance between 5G and 6G
In 2024, 5G expansion is expected to continue, with a projected 3.1 billion subscribers by the end of 2024. Telcos will deploy 5G standalone and private networks, offering lower latency, higher bandwidth, and increased security. Huawei is leading in launching 5.5G, bridging the gap between current networks and 6G, but commercial launches are unlikely before early 2030s.
Networks will leverage AI and metamaterials in 6G
6G standards are yet to be fully defined, but they will involve faster speeds, lower latency, greater efficiency, and ubiquitous connectivity. AI is needed to maintain intricate infrastructures, while metamaterials, reconstructions of materials with magnetic properties, will reconfigure networks. Investing in AI and metamaterials will help telcos prepare for a 6G future.
Starlink will dominate the satellite market
Starlink, a leading global broadband provider, operates over half of Earth's satellites. It launched enough satellites to meet 42 million Americans' broadband access needs by October 2023. Challengers include Amazon's Kuiper project and China's Guowang network expansion. Telcos are forming partnerships with space agencies for 6G, and Starlink has announced direct-to-cell messaging for 2024. Starlink's SpaceX origins allow for launch prioritization.
Future Mobility
In 2024, partial driving automation will be common
Level 2 autonomous vehicles (AVs) allow some autonomy with constant driver engagement, while Level 3 allows drivers to be ‘hands-off’ while performing tasks in specific circumstances. In 2024, Level 3 features will remain confined to the high-end market, although parts of the US and Germany have already granted regulatory approval for some Level 3 features. The US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) will mandate measures to ensure drivers are alert and engaged. In 2024, the increased supply of semiconductors will expedite the development of autonomous features.
Limited aerial ridesharing will not start until 2028, but production will begin in 2024
A global marketplace for electronic vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft will be established by 2030 and competitive and accessible by 2035. The first global airworthiness certificate was awarded in October 2023 to China’s EHang, with models set to arrive in Q4 2023; other companies will follow suit in 2024. By 2030, eVTOLs will start operation in urban areas in the US, China, the UK, and Japan, disrupting the private jet and taxi markets but complementing automobiles. Remote operation of eVTOLs will not begin until 2035. Few traditional carmakers are developing eVTOLs, but in 2024, they will partner with eVTOL companies or invest in eVTOL aircraft.
Autonomous transport as a service will be available by 2027
Autonomous transport as a service (ATaaS) is available in San Francisco, Beijing’s Yizhuang district, and Shenzhen, but Cruise has lost permission to operate due to accidents. Tesla’s Dojo AI supercomputer has recorded over a billion autonomous miles, which will accelerate full self-driving (FSD) capabilities and ATaaS. The number of ATaaS-associated accidents will increase, but the majority will be harmless. Europe, South Korea, and Japan are behind the US and China in developing Level 4 autonomy, but the market is not mature, and manufacturers could acquire AV companies to catch up.
China will lead in AVs
It is estimated that the Chinese AV market will be responsible for the highest sales of Level 4 and 4+ autonomous vehicles globally from 2035, with more than 7 million sold by 2050, despite the US-China trade war. This is due in part to the government's support, investment, and less stringent consumer privacy laws, allowing the accrual of large and robust datasets. Furthermore, the Chinese advantage in cellular vehicle-to-everything (CV2X) technology, which enables AVs to detect objects beyond their range of vision, contributes to this forecast.
M&A deal activity will decline
The AV industry will face reduced competition due to high investment costs and technological challenges. Interest rates will cause fewer AV startups to emerge, but investment into and development of AVs will persist. In 2024, further layoffs across the AV segment will be linked to the macro and geopolitical climate and the trend of layoffs in the tech industry.
Internet of Things
Consumer IoT
The consumer Internet of Things (IoT) industry is expected to reach $315 billion by 2024, with automated homes accounting for 41%, wearable technology accounting for 40%, and connected cars accounting for 19%. Apple's Vision Pro headset, featuring augmented reality, is expected to generate headlines and attract users. However, the high price may deter early adopters due to high inflation. The Vision Pro will trigger product launches from Apple and Samsung Electronics, focusing on work and entertainment. Before AR gadgets become commonplace, hardware, computing power, cost, and privacy issues must be addressed. Data privacy is a major concern for regulators and wearable technology vendors.
Smart security systems and smart thermostats will be a priority
The automated home market is predicted to reach over $130 billion by 2024, with 25% of revenue coming from smart security systems using AI for facial recognition, voice recognition, and motion detection. Smart thermostats are also expected to grow by 10% to $7.8 billion, addressing concerns about energy use and wallets.
5G availability will drive vehicle-to-vehicle interaction
In 2024, the connected car market will be worth more than $58 billion. With 5G now widely available and 6G in its early stages of development, the efficiency of vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) contact should increase, and automakers will make a strong push to install V2V technology by 2024. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration in the United States suggested a rule requiring all new cars to have V2V capability. While it is too early for many cars to have these capabilities, the trend will accelerate in 2024.
Enterprise IoT
The global enterprise IoT market is expected to generate $1.2 trillion in revenue by 2027, focusing on two key segments: Industrial Internet and smart cities. The Industrial Internet market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 15.1%, from $374 billion in 2022 to $756 billion by 2027. Smart cities, on the other hand, are expected to grow at a CAGR of 15%, from $234 billion in 2022 to $470 billion by 2027.
AI-powered internet of everything
AI in IoT devices, software, and services creates intelligent systems that adapt to their environment. AIoT processes large amounts of data, requiring low latency 5G and 6G networks for greater connectivity. AI reduces human decision-making in IoT environments and will enable applications across industries like predictive maintenance, utilities management, and automated data collection. Edge computing capabilities can monitor device performance and detect anomalies before breakdowns. The shift from cloud to edge will continue in 2024.
Wider adoption of smart grid technology is required
The growing demand for clean, resilient electricity networks will call for widespread adoption of smart grid technology. AI, combined with digital twins, will enable self-healing networks, reducing costs and labor. Smart grids can diagnose problems, reducing time to resolution and power outages. Governments will view smart grid technology as a necessity, aiming to reduce carbon emissions. Adoption will begin at national levels, with international grids emerging in the next decade.
The Future of Work
GenAI will bring opportunities and challenges
Due to the success of OpenAI's ChatGPT and the rise of generative AI, a larger and greater number of companies are now deploying AI-driven collaboration tools. 35% of businesses around the world are currently using AI in their workflows, and this figure is expected to increase by 2024 as companies are trying to boost their efficiency and productivity. Nonetheless, regardless of the business community's confidence in AI, data security and data leakage will remain a priority concern in 2024. This is because large language models (LLMs) such as ChatGPT have access to corporate data, including customer information.
Talent availability, retention strategies, and upskilling will remain a priority
The WEF's 2023 report indicated that the labor and skills shortage caused by the pandemic will not abate by 2024, and organizations feel that skills gaps and a lack of personnel are the major impediments to industry transformation. In light of the changing demographics of the workforce, CEOs must find a way to balance reskilling and upskilling the workforce with providing quality jobs and a good work environment.
The green transition will drive demand for new jobs in 2024
With the global move towards sustainable energy sources and the European Union and the United States intent on competing with China's predominance in the production of low-carbon technology, the need for workers in renewable energy and related areas will grow in 2024 and beyond. IRENA and the International Labor Organization reported that in 2022, there were 13.7 million people employed in renewable energy globally, an increase of one million from the previous year. This figure is expected to keep on increasing in the year 2024. The International Energy Agency forecasts that by 2030, renewable energy and the eco-friendly transition will create an additional 30 million jobs. IRENA stated that the number of people employed in China's clean energy projects went from 5.4 million in 2021 to 5.6 million in 2022, consisting of positions such as wind turbine maker, solar engineer, and electric vehicle technician.
Gaming
The gaming industry will be worth $279 billion in 2024
Artificial intelligence (AI), 5G, cloud gaming, augmented reality (AR), virtual reality (VR), the metaverse, and esports are driving the gaming industry's evolution. As the industry develops, it will be worth more than $279 billion in 2024 and $470 billion by 2030.
GenAI will make its mark
In 2024, generative AI will be increasingly used in game development to create new content, make non-playable characters more realistic and intelligent, and improve game mechanics. This will lead to more immersive and personalized games. Game studios will invest in no-code AI tools, which use natural text prompts instead of complex code, accelerating prototype creation, reducing testing time, and speeding up bug identification. This will drive user-generated content and generate monetization opportunities for creators.
Metaverse gaming will be niche but trigger M&A
The game sector is at the forefront of metaverse evolution. The metaverse winter, which began in 2023, will, nevertheless, continue in 2024. With the launching of the Vision Pro AR headset and the Quest 3 Lite VR headset, Apple and Meta will try to entice gamers and developers into their own metaverse ecosystems. However, AR and VR are still in their infancy and will stay specialized in gaming. As a result, high-quality, metaverse-oriented gaming will not be mainstream by 2024. Simultaneously, Roblox and Epic Games will continue to experiment with user-generated and collaborative games to secure their metaverse leadership. Unity Technologies, Epic Games, Roblox, and Niantic will become M&A targets for huge publishers and IT behemoths who see long-term promise in the metaverse.
Nintendo Switch 2 and Sony's PS5 Pro consoles will debut
The long-awaited Nintendo Switch 2 and PS5 Pro consoles will be released in H2 2024 and will cost more than their predecessors. The price increases are the result of the effects of inflation over the last 18 months. While inflation fell in the second half of 2023, prices remained high in comparison to pre-pandemic levels. This will reduce consumer spending on more expensive devices and games.
Healthtech
Drug discovery will benefit from GenAI
Drug discovery is costly and time-consuming, with low success rates. Despite being a relatively new technology in the pharma industry, generative AI is already being used successfully by several pharma companies, such as Insilico Medicine. Insilico used generative AI for every step of the preclinical procedure for its drug candidate for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, from selecting a molecule on which the drug could act to generating candidate drugs, measuring how these will interact with the target molecule, and predicting clinical trial success. The Phase 2 clinical trials for Insilico's proposed medication have recently begun. Using generative AI, Insilico saved $400 million and six years of effort. More pharmaceutical companies will begin adopting generative AI for target identification and medication repurposing by 2024. As pharma businesses expand up AI adoption across their value chains, they will need to collaborate with specialist AI providers while also developing their in-house skills.
Precision and personalized medicine market will grow rapidly
Improved patient outcomes, increased quality of life, reduced financial and time expenditure on disease management with curative therapies, and a shift from reactive to proactive care will drive high investment in R&D for precision and personalized medicine (PPM). The digital transformation of the healthcare industry will accelerate the time from drug discovery to commercialization. PPM sales are forecasted to increase from $8 billion in 2022 to $106 billion in 2029.
Gene-modified cell therapies will be the largest segment in this space by 2029, due to the forecast growth in sales of Legend Biotech’s Carvykti and BMS’s Breyanzi, by 70% and 40%, respectively, from 2022 to 2029, as well as expected approval of new drugs.
For digital therapeutics to succeed, they must confront obstacles
Digital therapeutics (DTx) is a promising field that provides evidence-based medicines to patients and practitioners through software programs. It offers personalized treatment plans across various platforms. However, DTx faced skepticism after Pear Therapeutics declared bankruptcy in 2023, highlighting the need for reimbursement. Healthcare authorities in Germany and France are developing regulatory and reimbursement paths for digital health, with international firms focusing on digital health regulatory standards to unify the regulatory landscape and increase patient access.
The Metaverse
The metaverse winter will continue in 2024
Limited understanding of the topic, dissatisfied consumers, project delays by Big Tech, and privacy and security concerns all contributed to a metaverse winter in 2023. The constraints of underlying enabling technologies such as blockchain, augmented reality (AR), virtual reality (VR), and digital twins all played a role. While metaverse-enabling technology will advance in 2024, a shortage of application cases will ensure that the winter lasts at least another year.
Enterprises will adopt the metaverse with a focus on the future of work
Technologies for the future of work such as AR, VR, digital twins, wearable tech, AI, 5G, and collaboration tools are driving the development of the workplace metaverse. Companies from various industries will concentrate on AR and VR, accelerating the creation of enterprise metaverse platforms. The metaverse will be used for worker training, collaboration, and process development. Many businesses, however, will take a 'wait and see' attitude to assessing the metaverse's long-term potential, while some huge corporations will legitimate the topic by finding new use cases.
New devices will intensify competition
Apple will begin distributing its costly Vision Pro headsets in 2024, while Google, Samsung Electronics, and Qualcomm will collaborate to build a competitor headset. To entice consumers, both devices will focus on providing immersive work, gaming, retail, and social media experiences. The quality of these experiences will determine long-term success, and corporations will strive to create a killer use case for their gadgets. Devices must be conveniently accessible, synchronize the actual and virtual environments, and provide safety and comfort during continuous use for the metaverse to gain mainstream adoption. Safety is a major problem in the metaverse, and regulators will scrutinize it.
Regional regulations will address common concerns
South Korea, China, the European Commission, and ITU are establishing standards for managing the metaverse, despite regional differences in priorities like data privacy. In 2024, authorities will focus on copyright, trademark, and intellectual property protection, metaverse content analysis, and societal impact.
Quantum Computing
The QC market will be worth $10 billion by 2030
Quantum computers are machines that employ quantum physics features to store data and execute computations. They are not general-purpose systems, but rather sophisticated parallel processing systems designed to do specialized tasks. According to leading industry analysts, the quantum computing business will be worth between $500 million and $1 billion in 2022, rising to $10 billion between 2026 and 2030, suggesting a compound annual growth rate of 30% to 50%. Because quantum computing businesses will not sell many systems in 2024, quantum as a service (QaaS)—providing quantum computers through cloud-based platforms—will be an important source of revenue. Even by 2030, noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) machines will outperform traditional supercomputers only in a few specialized applications, such as modeling quantum systems for use in drug discovery and materials science.
Standarization of Post-quantum cryptography (PQC) in 2024
The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) is set to release standards for three quantum-resistant public-key cryptographic algorithms, accelerating the adoption of post-quantum cryptography (PQC). This marks the largest overhaul of cybersecurity infrastructure since public-key cryptography's widespread adoption in the late 20th century, allowing encryption vendors to differentiate themselves from competitors.
1,000 qubits reached, more logical qubits to come
Atom Computing beat IBM to the first quantum computer with more than 1,000 qubits (quantum bits) in 2023. It is a significant achievement, but today's qubits are fragile and can only run simple algorithms. Advancements in quantum error correction—the creation of fault-tolerant logical qubits from multiple qubits will determine the success of quantum computing. Photonic, cat, and topological qubit architectures will be the leaders in quantum error correction.
A publicly traded quantum computing company will be delisted in 2024
Both D-Wave and Rigetti just avoided delisting in 2023, but their luck will run out in 2024. Quantum computing is still in its infancy, and the long time horizon might be disconcerting even for patient investors. D-Wave, for example, went public in 1999, 23 years after its establishment, and currently trades for less than $1, down from a list price of $10. This failure might frighten investors and ignite a quantum winter.
Robotics
Workplace automation will continue to grow
Inflation and a tight labor market are driving workplace automation worldwide, with companies seeking cost-effective solutions. Industrial robot revenues are expected to reach $23.8 billion in 2023, with a 10% CAGR growth rate between 2023 and 2030. Companies like FANUC are developing advanced automation solutions to reduce human error and improve efficiency. However, concerns about unemployment persist.
AI will help reduce the cost of robots
AI technologies, particularly machine learning, are crucial for developing intelligent industrial robots, lowering the cost barrier for smaller businesses. AI can potentially cut robot programming and integration costs by up to half, bridging the gap between the physical and intellectual aspects of robotics, and enabling effective human-robot collaboration.
Service robots will drive growth for the robotics industry
The service robot industry will be worth $67.1 billion in 2024, a 28% increase from 2023. Service robots will be the most important driver driving robotics growth in 2024, with the drone sector playing an important role. Commercial drone delivery will increase in 2024, with companies such as Amazon and Alphabet's Wing seeking to extend their drone delivery fleets globally. Moving away from traditional last-mile delivery models will spur further innovation in the drone technology field, with drone market revenues estimated to climb by 40% between 2023 and 2024.
Exoskeletons will be the fastest-growing robotics market
Exoskeletons are wearable, mobile apparatuses that allow for enhanced strength and endurance in limb movement. Exoskeletons have enormous market potential. The exoskeleton market generated $520 million in revenue in 2023, with revenue expected to increase by 38% between 2023 and 2024. Exoskeletons are largely employed in healthcare, defense, and industrial applications. While cost is a key commercial obstacle, technological advancements will push exoskeleton prices down. Exoskeletons will be widely employed in healthcare by 2024, as their availability through health insurance programs such as Medicaid expands.
The Space Economy
The space economy could be worth up to $1 trillion by 2030
Increased use of satellite data applications and services centered on data communications, navigation, and Earth observation will drive the space economy forward. Other major factors include lower launch costs, increased space militarization, and the entry of firms from Asia Pacific.
Geopolitics will escalate space competition
Geopolitical tensions are at their peak since the Cold War, raising concerns about space security. Governments will employ space in 2024 to assert geopolitical supremacy and enhance national security. NASA will launch the first crewed voyage around the Moon since 1972, as the US and China strive for technological leadership in space. India's space sector will witness more recruiting, and states will speed R&D on space weaponry.
The Earth observation industry will take off
Earth observation services, a relatively new subsector, track Earth's land, marine, and atmospheric activity from space via remote sensing satellites. This satellite data can be used in a variety of businesses, including agriculture, finance, and defense. For example, ICICI Bank in India uses satellite data on irrigation and agricultural patterns to assess the creditworthiness of farming customers. Over the next five years, this subsector will grow dramatically since enterprises no longer need to own satellites to acquire satellite data.
Governments will raise their efforts to tackle space debris
Space commerce has clogged the Earth's orbit with human-made objects, posing a significant environmental risk. According to the EU Space Agency, there will be around 130 million bits of space debris in orbit by September 2023. As more items are launched into space, the risk of collisions will increase. Governments will increase their investments in debris mitigation technologies and establish national legislation to prevent debris formation by 2024. Dish Network received the world's first space debris fine from the US government in 2023 for failing to properly deorbit a defunct satellite. More fines will be imposed.
Synthetic Biology
Preparing for a decade of Growth
The manipulation of genetic material to promote or suppress specific features is known as synthetic biology. The field has the potential to have a wide-ranging impact, ranging from healthcare and medicine to agriculture and food.
Tech companies will trial future-proof DNA data storage
By 2040, demand for memory and data storage will outstrip availability of silicon. Through DNA-based storage, synthetic biology provides an efficient alternative. Data can be stored in the four nucleotide bases of DNA, which can be synthesized, rather than as bits on a hard drive, due to DNA's high volumetric density and low energy consumption. It will be a vital memory material during the next decade, with the worldwide DNA data storage industry predicted to increase significantly between 2024 and 2031. Technology corporations will launch the nascent industry. The DNA Data Storage Alliance, founded in 2020 and made up of more than 60 members including research institutes, Big Tech enterprises, and digital service providers, will drive this forward.
China’s focus on biosynthetic food will pave the way in collaboration with Singapore
China plans to leverage synthetic biology in its food and agriculture sectors in 2024, focusing on improving nutrition and reducing natural resource pressure. The Chinese government is supporting the industry with financing and infrastructure, and over 50 synthetic biology companies have been established since 2021. Singapore, a key R&D hub for China, plans to produce 30% of its nutritional needs by 2030, accelerating the commercialization of synthetic proteins.
Australia will gain a competitive edge in synthetic biology
According to Australia's 2021 synthetic biology strategy, the industry has the potential to generate an additional AUD27 billion ($17.2 billion) in annual income by 2040. Australia is well-positioned to benefit from synthetic biology applications in agriculture, food, and healthcare. In 2024, Australian synthetic biology startups will seek financing, while legislative constraints may stymie advances in other places. Regulations on the safety evaluation, traceability, labeling, and marketing of genetically modified foods in the EU will stymie the industry. The EU legislation on synthetic biology illustrates how laboratory regulation was enough for low-risk experimentation. Processes are being applied outside the lab, and EU laws are out of date, failing to consider items with market potential. As a result, the EU will begin the next decade of synthetic biology growth at the tail end of the pack.
Conclusion
The pace of change across technology, business, geopolitics, and society continues to accelerate rapidly. As this analysis highlights, the landscape in 2024 will showcase increasing convergence across sectors alongside the emergence of new ecosystems.
Several macro themes shine through: the rise of generative AI and cloud computing, the drive towards sustainability, and increasing geopolitical tensions. However, each industry also faces unique opportunities and challenges that require tailored solutions.
Leaders must make difficult decisions while balancing pragmatic concerns with long-term strategic visions. But analysis grounded in rigorous research allows us to peer through the confusion and uncertainty. Although the future remains hard to predict, these insights allow organizations to anticipate change, respond with agility, and transform uncertainty into opportunity.
Businesses across tech, automotive, healthcare, and other sectors explored here will need resilience in the face of shifting landscapes. But those who can deftly chart their course have much to gain.
As Darwin said, “It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
While surprises doubtless lie ahead, this outlook aims to provide an invaluable compass for leaders seeking to future-proof their strategies. The winners will combine these insights with bold vision and swift execution to unlock new sources of value. By maintaining flexibility amid ever-faster cycles of disruption, organizations can thrive at the forefront of change.
The future remains unfolding, but it also holds untapped promise. With a multi-dimensional view, cross-sector analysis, and proactive adaptation, businesses can traverse the terrain ahead and help shape it for the better.
Humanity’s interaction with technology stands at a pivotal juncture.
With the acceleration of innovation, people’s sense is that technology is happening to them rather than for them. Looking ahead, the tech industry and all those who rely on it need to upgrade their responsibility from compliance to care and work towards contributing positively to people’s wellbeing rather than draining their resources.
Businesses can’t hide from the oncoming tide of people seeking control of their relationship with technology, so their best approach is to become part of the solution.